England: Tobacco-free generation not achievable before 2039

According to Cancer Research UK (CRUK), while smoking rates are falling, they are not falling fast enough to meet the government's target of making England a "smoke-free" country by 2030. The reason is that smoking rates among the poorest populations remain very high and are falling less quickly than in the rest of the population.[1].

In 2019, the government announced its intention to achieve a smoke-free generation in England by 2030, meaning a prevalence of less than 5% in the adult population.

Smoking prevalence remains higher among disadvantaged populations

Around 6 million UK adults – less than one in eight (11.9 per cent) – smoke. This is the lowest proportion ever recorded and down from 20.2 per cent in 2011, according to the most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics. England has the lowest prevalence (11.6 per cent) – 4.9 million people still smoke – and Scotland the highest (13.5 per cent).

Although this downward trend is expected to continue, CRUK projections show that the change will be too small to reduce smoking prevalence to less than 5% in the population as a whole. Behind the national prevalence figures lie significant inequalities: in England, as in France and elsewhere, smoking is a real social marker, and mainly affects the most disadvantaged populations. More working-class cities such as Manchester continue to have relatively high levels of consumption (20.8%), while Wokingham and Richmond upon Thames have much lower smoking prevalence (5.5% and 6% respectively). Furthermore, certain social groups seem to be more affected by smoking. For example, as government figures highlight, 21.4% of manual workers declare themselves to be smokers.[2].

Thus, according to CRUK projections, prevalence is expected to reach the target of 5 % among the richest decile of the population by 2025 in England, but not by 2050 among the most deprived decile of the population. Furthermore, even when the target of a tobacco-free generation in the general population is reached in 2039, the poorest people will still be almost four times more likely to use tobacco than the most advantaged (459,000 smokers in the most deprived tenth of the population compared to around 119,000 in the most advantaged tenth).

Have more targeted measures against these populations

The UK is set to introduce new, highly restrictive anti-smoking measures (Tobacco and Vaping Bill) very soon, including a generational ban on tobacco, an increase in taxation on tobacco products and stricter regulation of vaping products. However, many experts have been warning for years about the need to strengthen smoking cessation policies in the UK. A government report of 2022 had also recommended investing more in the fight against smoking with an additional £125 million per year, or around €145 million. In particular, this investment should partly be devoted to improving the care and support of smokers in quitting smoking, with a focus on the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations.

©Tobacco Free Generation

AE

[1] Denis Campbell, England may not be 'smoke-free' until 2039, cancer charity warns, The Guardian, published November 4, 2024, accessed the same day

[2] Gov.uk, Press Release, Government launches landmark reviews to tackle health disparities, published on February 4, 2022, consulted on November 4, 2024