United States: Increase in cannabis and new forms of nicotine use among adults of all ages

The 2025 results of the Monitoring the Future survey, which focused on adults aged 19 to 65 and was published on August 12, 2026, by the University of Michigan and the National Institutes of Health, confirm a lasting shift in smoking habits. Smoking remains at low levels, but e-cigarette use has reached its highest level ever recorded among young adults, nicotine pouch use has more than doubled in two years, and cannabis consumption is reaching or nearing record highs in all three age groups studied.

THE Monitoring the Future Longitudinal Panel Study Since 1976, the study has been tracking cohorts of Americans recruited in their final year of high school, divided into three age groups: 19-30, 35-50, and 55-65. Nearly 120,000 people have been followed, and the study has been funded continuously for fifty years by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA).[1]-[2] The report, published in July 2026, covers 2025 data and more than twenty-five substances[3]. Unless otherwise stated, the prevalence rates cited below refer to the last twelve months. Two limitations should be noted: the panel does not cover individuals who left the school system before completing their final year, and the survey is self-reported; it does not measure nicotine dosages or the daily intensity of use.

A slowdown in the decline of smoking

Smoking continues its downward trend and has now reached a very low level in all age groups (8.3 % to 10.6 % over thirty days); among young adults, daily use has reached a historic low of 3.1 %, compared to 28.8 % in 2004. However, the pace of this decline is slowing down: in 2025, all indicators related to smoking are expected to rise slightly among young adults, although the increase is not statistically significant, a sign, according to the authors, of a slowdown.

This shift reflects the diversification strategy adopted by tobacco manufacturers in response to the structural decline of cigarettes: e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches, marketed in a wide range of flavors, at low entry prices, and promoted on social media, are presented as less harmful alternatives to cigarettes. However, data from the MTF panel suggest an addition rather than a substitution: among 55-65 year olds, smoking did not decline between 2024 and 2025, while the use of pouches, cigars, and hookahs increased; among young adults, the decline in smoking stalled at the very moment when vaping and pouch use reached their highest levels. The report does not include a breakdown of dual use per individual, but the aggregate dynamics it documents are difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis of complete substitution.

In fact, the use of nicotine in any form has generally increased: the indicator combining all products reaches 38.6 % among young adults, 29.2 % among 35-50 year olds and 29.5 % among 55-65 year olds (compared to 25.0 % in 2024 for this last group): between three and four out of ten adults now report using nicotine in the past year.

Vaping and nicotine pouches are on the rise.

Among 19-30 year olds, e-cigarette use in the thirty days preceding the survey reached 19.3 %, the highest prevalence measured since the introduction of monitoring of these products in 2017, when it stood at 6.1 %. Among 35-50 year olds, use increased from 5.8 % in 2020 to 8.5 % in 2025.

In 2023, the survey includes monitoring of nicotine pouches, the use of which is increasing faster than that of any other tracked product. Among young adults, it rises from 4.8 % in 2023 to 12.7 % in 2025. The increase is also significant among 35-50 year olds (from 4.9 % to 7.2 %) and among 55-65 year olds (from 4.3 % to 5.7 %). Among this latter group, several other tobacco products are also showing marked growth: large cigars, hookahs, and smokeless tobacco.

Cannabis at record levels

Among 19-30 year olds, cannabis use is projected to affect 41.9 per 100,000 people in 2025, compared to 31.3 per 100,000 ten years earlier. Daily use has reached a historical high of 11.8 per 100,000, compared to 6.9 per 100,000 in 2015: since 2012, this daily prevalence has exceeded that of alcohol, which is projected to reach 2.7 per 100,000 in 2025 in this age group.

The rise in cannabis use is also affecting older adults: among 35- to 50-year-olds, use has almost doubled in ten years (from 15.9 % to 29.9 %), with a record daily usage of 8.5 %. Among 55- to 65-year-olds, it is expected to increase from 18.1 % to 21.3 % between 2024 and 2025, the highest level since this group began being monitored. Cannabis vaping is also on the rise, reaching 22.1 % among young adults in the twelve months preceding the survey.

A restructuring that serves the industry's strategy

When asked about these results, Nora Volkow, director of the NIDA, found the continued relatively low smoking rates and the ongoing decline in alcohol consumption reassuring, while noting that the increase in cannabis, other nicotine products, and certain other substances warranted particular vigilance and continuous monitoring. Megan Patrick, a researcher at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan and the panel's scientific lead, emphasized that the value of this type of survey lies in its ability to detect subtle shifts before they escalate into significant increases in consumption.

These changes are not solely due to the dynamics of usage: the decline in certain products may also partly reflect the effect of the public health policies associated with them. But above all, they highlight the results of the diversification strategy undertaken by tobacco and nicotine manufacturers in response to the structural decline of the cigarette market in high-income countries.

©Generation Without Tobacco

AE

[1] University of Michigan News, Cannabis, nicotine led US adult substance use trends in 2025, Published on August 12, 2026, accessed on August 13, 2026 https://news.umich.edu/cannabis-nicotine-led-us-adult-substance-use-trends-in-2025/

[2] National Institutes of Health, Elevated use of cannabis, nicotine among US adults continues into 2025, Press release dated August 12, 2026, accessed August 13, 2026 https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/elevated-use-cannabis-nicotine-among-us-adults-continues-into-2025

[3] Patrick ME, Miech RA, O'Malley PM, Jager J., Jang JB, Monitoring the Future Longitudinal Panel Study annual report: National data on substance use among adults ages 19 to 65, 1976–2025, Monitoring the Future Monograph Series, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, published in July 2026 — data dashboard accessed on August 13, 2026 https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/panel/