In Belgium, a study finds a tobacco-free generation by 2040 unlikely

A study by the Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain), carried out in 2023-2024, published in the international journal Tobacco Control, believes that Belgian political parties, both left and right, are not making sufficient efforts to achieve the goal of a tobacco-free generation by 2040[1], while one in six Walloons aged 15 and over is still a regular smoker, and numerous violations of the anti-smoking law are observed on a daily basis. Federal Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke responded to these criticisms by explaining that Belgium had passed many strong anti-smoking measures in the meantime. 

Little political momentum for a tobacco-free generation by 2040

Conducted by the UCLouvain Institute for Health and Society Research in collaboration with the Alliance for a Tobacco-Free Society (which includes the Foundation Against Cancer and its Dutch-speaking counterpart Kom op tegen Kanker), the survey submitted a questionnaire in the winter of 2023-2024 to the twelve parties represented in the Federal Parliament, ten of which responded on time: PS, Vooruit, MR, Open VLD, N-VA, DéFI, Ecolo, Groen, Les Engagés and the C D&V. The parties were invited to position themselves on fifteen measures related to tobacco control.

Some of these proposals echo the "Interfederal Strategy 2022-2028 for a Tobacco-Free Generation", which aims to reduce daily consumption to less than 6 % among 15-24 year-olds by 2028, before reaching almost 0 % new smokers by 2040.

Other measures go further: increasing excise duties on tobacco products by at least 10%, allocating part of the tax revenue to prevention, or even gradually raising the legal purchasing age to prohibit anyone born after 2011 from acquiring tobacco products, a measure similar to that envisaged in the United Kingdom or until the end of 2023 in New Zealand, where The measure was suspended by the election of a conservative coalition.

Political blockages and persistent industry influence

The results show a consensus limited to prevention and withdrawal actions, while the most restrictive measures, recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), arouse cross-party reluctance.

According to Professor Vincent Lorant, head of the study, the main parties " block the most effective measures ", such as a significant increase in taxes, limiting the number of points of sale per license, banning sales to new generations or strict transparency in the face of lobbying.

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which Belgium ratified on 1^er November 2005, includes a general obligation for all Parties to the treaty to limit contacts between political decision-makers and cigarette manufacturers to what is strictly necessary. While national data are lacking, the researchers point out that in France, obligations have been imposed on manufacturers to declare their lobbying expenditures, even if the amounts declared are largely underestimated compared to reality. The study advocates for a public register of exchanges between political leaders and industry representatives, accompanied by detailed reports.

Finally, the researchers note that the arguments put forward by the parties often echo those of the industry, notably the fear of an increase in contraband or the defense of a supposedly informed and autonomous "free choice" for smokers.

However, tobacco consumption remains high, with major difficulties for smokers to break their addiction. This consumption is also strongly influenced by social inequalities: 18% of smokers among the least educated compared to 8% among the most qualified. Social influence mechanisms are also very strong among children and adolescents, who are more likely to start smoking or vaping if their family and/or peers have the same practices.

Moreover, Nora Mélard, spokesperson for the Alliance for a Tobacco-Free Society, analyses that " We see today that e-cigarettes are widely used by young people. And young people are not people who used to smoke and want to quit. They are young people who would potentially not have smoked thanks to the various policies that have been put in place. And who are now starting to use e-cigarettes. » : 6 % of young Belgians vape daily[2].

The report concludes that decision-makers still favor " the short-term economic interests of smokers » rather than protecting public health, while France and the Netherlands have already adopted much more ambitious policies.

Federal Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke has responded to these criticisms. He believes that over the past five years he has already taken a series of concrete measures, such as the ban on disposable e-cigarettes since 1^er January 2025, the ban to display cigarettes, cigars, cigarillos, rolling papers, filters, pipe tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff, electronic cigarettes and their e-liquids on the shelves of points of sale from the 1st^er April 2025 or the ban on smoking and vaping on terraces from 2027The minister says that, in his opinion, there is no future for the tobacco industry in Belgium.

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1]Belga, No real political will to achieve a tobacco-free generation by 2040, The Specialist, published October 17, 2025, consulted October 21, 2025

[2]Melinda Bilmez, Thomas Decupere, Michael Harvie, 'I started smoking to have something to do': Tobacco-free generation predicted for 2040 appears compromised, study finds, RTL info, published on October 17, 2025, consulted on October 21, 2025

National Committee Against Smoking |