Australia: Daily smoking at a historic low, vaping stabilizing

In Australia, the share of daily smokers has fallen to 5.6% of the population aged 14 and over in 2025, its lowest level ever recorded, according to the results of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) published on July 17, 2026 by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). Daily e-cigarette use remained stable over the same period, with no shift towards smoking tobacco. These results contradict claims, circulated in recent months in several countries and even in European discussions on the revision of tobacco directives, that stricter rules on vaping would automatically lead to a rise in smoking.[1].

The NDSHS is Australia's longest-running and largest national survey on tobacco, vaping, and other substances. In its 2025 edition, over 17,500 people aged 14 and over were interviewed between June and December 2025. The results, published on July 17, 2026, are the first in a series of three publications. This initial report will be followed by a more detailed analysis of the use of tobacco, e-cigarettes, and other emerging nicotine products, expected in August 2026. Finally, a third report focusing on alcohol and illicit drugs is due to be published in late 2026.

Daily smoking at its lowest level ever measured

Daily smoking continues its decline, which began in the early 2000s. Among those aged 14 and over, it is falling from 19.5 % in 2001 to 8.3 % in 2022-2023, and then to 5.6 % in 2025, representing approximately 1.3 million daily smokers compared to 3 million in 2001. Among adults aged 18 and over, the rate is projected to reach 5.8 % in 2025. This level puts Australia ahead of its national target of reducing adult daily smoking below 10 % by 2025, and on track to meet the 5 % target set for 2030 in the National Tobacco Strategy 2023-2030.[2]. The proportion of people who have never smoked also continues to increase, reaching 68.7% in 2025.

Researchers from the Australian National University (ANU), affiliated with the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, emphasize that this decline reflects the effectiveness of strong and comprehensive measures put in place in recent years or even decades by the government to curb smoking.

Vaping: stabilization of daily use, without a compensatory increase in smoking

Daily e-cigarette use, which had increased sharply between 2016 (0.5 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over) and 2022-2023 (3.5 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over), is expected to stabilize at 3.6 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over in 2025. Non-daily but regular vaping use (daily, weekly, or less frequent) is expected to decline to 6 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over, compared to 7 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over in 2022-2023. Among young adults aged 18 to 24, the proportion of regular e-cigarette use is expected to fall from 20.6 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over in 2022-2023 to 14 per 100,000 of those aged 14 and over in 2025, without a corresponding increase in smoking in this age group.

This finding directly contradicts the argument, put forward by opponents of stricter vaping regulations, that restricting access to e-cigarettes would push young people towards smoking tobacco. The 2025 data do not support this hypothesis: the decline in vaping among young adults is accompanied by a continued decrease in smoking, not a shift towards it. The use of any nicotine product in the population aged 14 and over over the past twelve months is also declining, to 15.2 % in 2025 compared to 17.4 % in 2022-2023, its lowest recorded level.

Nicotine sachets: an emerging use, particularly among young adults

The survey, conducted in 2025, distinguishes for the first time between nicotine pouches and traditional snus, which contains tobacco and has been banned in Australia since 1991. 1.8% of people aged 14 and over reported using nicotine pouches in the past 12 months, compared to 0.8% for traditional snus. This usage is significantly higher among 18-24 year olds, with 8.4% in this age group having used nicotine pouches and 3.8% having used snus in the past year. Furthermore, the proportion of people using three or more forms of nicotine has almost doubled since 2016.

In response to this increase, the federal government announced, on the very day the survey was published, stricter access to nicotine pouches. As of July 24, 2026, these products will no longer be accessible through existing exemption schemes (Special Access Scheme, Authorised Prescribers Scheme, Personal Importation Scheme), and their individual importation, even with a prescription, will be prohibited. The federal Minister of Health justified this measure by the need to protect younger generations from a new form of nicotine addiction.

Illegal market: "tobacconists" at the heart of the parallel market

The survey highlights a marked increase in the use of illicit tobacco among current smokers. 34% of them reported having purchased and/or used it, compared to 16.7% in 2022-2023 and 10% in 2019. This total includes 22.6% of people who purchased "branded" tobacco without plain packaging or graphic health warnings in the last three months, and 16.4% who used unpackaged tobacco (known as "chop chop"), generally sold loose. These two categories are not mutually exclusive: some smokers engage in both practices, which explains why their combined use exceeds the total of 34%. The parallel market also affects vaping. More than half of those who purchased branded illicit tobacco reported obtaining it from a tobacconist. The parallel market also affects vaping: among people using electronic cigarettes, only 2.5% obtained them from a pharmacy and 4.8% via an online pharmacy, the rest coming from unauthorized sources, most often tobacconists.

This increase in the illicit supply constitutes, according to the researchers who conducted the analysis, the main concern regarding the 2025 results. It calls for a strengthening of existing regulations, rather than a relaxation of regulatory policies, whether for tobacco or vaping products. Territorial and social inequalities in smoking reduction, particularly among priority populations, also remain a key area of concern.

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[1] Becky Freeman, Michelle Jongenelis, Despite claims smoking has made a comeback, just 5.6% of Australians now smoke daily, The Conversation, published July 16, 2026, accessed the same day

[2] Melissa Davey,  Smoking rates fall to historic low across Australia despite the rise of illicit tobacco, The Guardian, published on July 16, 2026, accessed the same day