Cancer cases to explode in England by 2040

According to new projections published by a coalition of 60 cancer associations, united under the name One Cancer Voice, England is expected to see a 14% increase in the number of cancer diagnoses over the next 15 years. Between now and 2040, there could be 6.3 million new cases – the equivalent of one diagnosis every two minutes.[1].

A worrying trend driven by the most common cancers

Among the millions of new diagnoses expected by 2040, the most common cancers are expected to experience unprecedented growth. Estimates indicate that prostate, breast, and lung cancer cases will reach record levels. These three diseases are already among the leading causes of cancer morbidity and mortality in England, and their rise will contribute significantly to the overall increase.

Prostate cancer could become the most common cancer, with more than a million new diagnoses expected over the next fifteen years. This increase is explained by both the aging of the male population and improved screening, which allows more cases to be detected at an early stage.

Breast cancer, already the most common cancer in women, is expected to register approximately 906,000 new cases by 2040. Although therapeutic advances have improved survival, this high incidence underscores the importance of maintaining and strengthening screening programs.

Lung cancer remains a major public health challenge, with an estimated 821,000 additional diagnoses projected over the period. Closely linked to smoking, it remains one of the deadliest cancers, disproportionately affecting the most disadvantaged regions and populations. This increase is also explained by the growing and aging population, which automatically increases the number of expected cases.

These figures, from the coalition One Cancer Voice, illustrate a dual reality: advances in screening contribute to better detection, but the persistence of major risk factors – tobacco, alcohol, obesity, sedentary lifestyle – continues to fuel the overall incidence. According to the associations, only proactive action in terms of prevention and a strengthened treatment strategy will limit the impact of this increase on the health system.

Persistent territorial inequalities

Beyond national trends, the projections reveal significant regional disparities. According to the analysis of One Cancer Voice, some areas of England will be much harder hit by the expected rise in cancers[2].

Northeast England is projected to experience the sharpest increase, with an estimated 19.4% increase in cancer cases by 2040 compared to the previous period. This region, which already has high rates of smoking and chronic disease, illustrates the importance of social determinants of health in the incidence of the disease. Yorkshire and the Humber will follow with a projected increase of 16.7%, reinforcing an already unfavorable gradient between the north and south of the country.

By comparison, other regions will experience less rapid, but significant, growth, such as the South West (+12.6 %) and the East of England (+12.8 %). These differences highlight the combined influence of lifestyles, environment and poverty levels on the occurrence of cancers.

These figures reflect a worrying reality: the most disadvantaged populations, already facing more limited access to care, will also be the most exposed to the increase in incidence. For associations, the fight against cancer must therefore be accompanied by a strategy aimed at reducing social and territorial inequalities in health, otherwise the expected increase risks further exacerbating existing divides.

An institutional mobilization announced

Faced with these alarming projections, the British government is highlighting several measures already implemented and is preparing a new national cancer plan for England, which associations are expecting as a decisive moment. The government is stressing the need to "turn the page on more than a decade of neglect" in the field of oncology and to invest in structural solutions.

The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs emphasizes that progress has already been made. Between July 2024 and May 2025, approximately 95,000 additional people were able to receive a diagnosis, compared to the same period a year earlier. This acceleration of the diagnostic process illustrates, according to the authorities, the effectiveness of the efforts already made to improve rapid access to tests.

Several concrete initiatives are also highlighted:

• The deployment of home screening kits for cervical cancer, in order to simplify access to screening and reach populations far from the health system;
• The installation of new radiotherapy devices in each region, to reduce waiting times and improve territorial equality of access to treatment;
• And the stated desire to create a "first tobacco-free generation", translated by reinforced prevention policies against smoking, a major factor in preventable cancers.

For the associations, these announcements represent significant progress, but they must be accompanied by a comprehensive, coherent, and sustainable strategy. The success of the plan will depend above all on its level of funding and the ability to sustainably mobilize the human and material resources of the NHS, the national health insurance service. As Professor Sir Mike Richards, former national cancer director at the Department of Health, pointed out, "Only a stable budget allocation will make it possible to transform promises into concrete results, while reducing the overall cost of the disease for society in the long term."

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] Andrew Gregory, Cancer charities call for earlier diagnosis as cases projected to surge in England by 2040, The Guardian, published August 27, 2025, accessed August 28, 2025

[2] Harriette Boucher, One person could be diagnosed with cancer every two minutes until 2040, The Independent, published August 27, 2025, accessed August 28, 2025