Pakistan: Rising tobacco prices prompt people to quit

A recent study by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE)[1] shows that a majority of smokers in Pakistan would prefer to quit smoking instead of switching to other brands if tobacco prices increased significantly.

The study, titled Switch, Cut Down, or Quit: How Smokers Respond to Tobacco Tax Increases in Pakistan, suggests that a 50% increase in cigarette prices would lead to a sharp reduction in cigarette demand in Pakistan.

The study is based on data from a survey on the weight of tobacco consumption in Pakistan.[2]This survey was conducted on a representative sample of 12,140 households, nationally.

A strong relationship between price increases and intention to stop

In this survey, smokers were asked about various price increase scenarios (+20%, +30%, +40% and +50 %) for their favorite cigarette brand. For each price change, they were asked if they would continue to use that brand and any associated changes. The results show a correlation between price increases and the number of smokers who report opting to quit. With a 20% price increase, approximately 15% of the smokers surveyed would stop using their brand. With a 30% increase, just over 20% of the respondents would quit; with a 40% increase, 35% of the smokers indicated they would quit, and half of them said they would quit if the price increased by 50%.

Smokers very loyal to their cigarette brand

The study shows that only 9% of cigarette consumers said they would change products if the price of their cigarettes increased, while 52.5% said they would quit smoking and 38% said they would reduce their consumption. Of these 9%, approximately 42% would choose another, more affordable brand of cigarettes, while the rest would switch to other tobacco and nicotine products (chewing tobacco, e-cigarettes, etc.).

When asked about their consumption habits, only 2.61% of smokers reported having switched to other brands or other tobacco products since they started smoking. This very low proportion underscores consumer loyalty to the brand or product. This loyalty is a characteristic of tobacco product consumption and constitutes one of the challenges for manufacturers in their marketing and youth targeting strategies.

Effective tax policies to reduce initiation and encourage cessation

Numerous studies highlight that increasing tobacco taxes is the most effective way to reduce consumption, particularly among young people. High prices discourage young people from starting to smoke and/or encourage them to quit. This price sensitivity is even stronger in low- and middle-income countries. According to the study results, approximately 85% of smokers reported starting smoking before the age of 25 in Pakistan, and the majority of smokers surveyed (65%) reported using the cheapest brands.

These results further validate the fact that affordable tobacco products are a major factor in consumption and thaton the contrary A strong tax policy directly contributes to reducing tobacco consumption by encouraging a large number of smokers to consider quitting.

In Pakistan, tobacco excise taxes are well below the WHO-recommended threshold of 70%. The study's authors argue that taxes should be raised to this threshold to have a significant impact on reducing cigarette consumption.

Keywords: Pakistan, Taxes, Brands, Tobacco, Prices

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] Durre Nayab, Muhammad Nasir, Junaid Alam Memon, Omer Siddique, Switch, Reduce or Quit: How do Smokers respond to tobacco taxes increase in Pakistan? Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, April 2021, https://tobacconomics.org/files/research/681/pide-rp-switching-final.pdf [2] Saqib MAN, Rafique I, Qureshi H, Munir MA, Bashir R, Arif BW, Bhatti K, Ahmed SAK, Bhatti L. Burden of Tobacco in Pakistan: Findings From Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2014. Nicotine Tob Res. 2018 Aug 14;20(9):1138-1143. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntx179. Erratum in: Nicotine Tob Res. 2019 Jan 1;21(1):136. PMID: 29059338. National Committee Against Smoking |