New Zealand: Health Minister's strategy to achieve a tobacco-free generation is a failure

The New Zealand government recently halved the excise duty on heated tobacco products. Health Minister Casey Costello claimed that this would help 7,200 “hard-core smokers” quit. However, there is no strong, independent evidence to support the claim that heated tobacco products are effective tools to help people quit smoking.

In a publication[1], co-authored by public health experts including Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Jude Ball, Richard Edwards and Anna Graham-DeMello, calls on the health minister to adopt an evidence-based approach.

The need to reintroduce stronger measures

In early 2024, the coalition government repealed anti-smoking measures, in particular the ban on sales to people born after 2009, the denicotinisation of products and the drastic reduction in the number of points of sale, which would have significantly reduced accessibility to products but also addiction and tobacco.[2]Current Health Minister Casey Costello justified the repeal by proposing to target people she described as "heavy smokers."

The authors of the publication challenge this targeted approach to "heavy smokers", explaining that the data show a significant decline in the number of cigarettes smoked per day over the last ten years in the country and a significant increase in the number of people quitting smoking. This category of "heavy smokers" is thus shrinking from year to year. For the authors, all the measures taken, such as increasing the price of cigarettes and reducing the number of places where one can smoke, increase people's motivation to quit smoking.

The authors also stress the importance of providing evidence-based cessation treatments to people trying to quit smoking. By including heated tobacco products in the Smokefree 2025 strategy, the New Zealand government acted against the advice of the Ministry of Health and the Treasury, against the recommendations of the WHO and against the conclusions of a Cochrane review. The latter is considered the gold standard on the subject. The “independent advice” relied on by the Associate Minister of Health includes dated, largely irrelevant, tobacco industry documents.[3].

Heated tobacco will not contribute to achieving the “2025 tobacco-free” goal

In their briefing note from the Centre for Public Health Communication, the authors state that the Minister of Health's halving of the excise tax on heated tobacco products would have only a minimal impact on achieving the "Smokefree 2025" goal. They also state that given that most vaping and heated tobacco products do not comply with the new safety requirements, and are therefore not authorized for sale, the Minister of Health's stated goal cannot be achieved.

According to experts, the briefing, Government struggling with evidence: Heated tobacco products, addiction levels, and Smokefree 2025, says the government has replaced "evidence-based measures" that could have significantly reduced smoking prevalence with a "price reduction for an alternative product that has not been proven and is no longer available."

The briefing note highlights Costello's reference to a Department of Health model that suggested that "about 7,200 smokers over the next two years could switch to heated tobacco products." One of the authors of that model, Richard Edwards, professor of public health at the University of Otago's Department of Public Health, pointed out that the department's figure of 7,200 was a small percentage of the total needed to achieve the goal of a tobacco-free generation.

They estimate that an additional 80,505 people would need to quit smoking to “achieve a smoking prevalence of 5,% in the general population,” based on estimated 2023 population data for those aged 18 and over. Furthermore, this calculation does not take into account inequalities in smoking prevalence. Furthermore, the original Smokefree target was to achieve this prevalence level regardless of the social class of the population concerned. However, smoking prevalence among Māori, for example, is more than three times higher than the 5,% ceiling.

Finally, the heated tobacco "trial" put forward by Minister Casey Costello is no longer an option, given that almost all products have been withdrawn from sale, failing to meet the new safety regulations required.[4].

©Tobacco Free Generation

AE

[1] Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Jude Ball, Richard Edwards, Anna Graham-DeMello, Government struggling with evidence: HTPs, addiction levels, and Smokefree 2025, PHCC, published October 10, accessed October 11, 2024

[2] Generation without tobacco, New Zealand: Philip Morris' offensive to obtain advantageous taxation in favour of heated tobacco, published on August 27, 2024, consulted on October 11, 2024

[3] Generation without tobacco, New Zealand: Labour Party calls for resignation of tobacco industry minister Costello, published October 5, accessed October 11, 2024

[4] Generation without tobacco, New Zealand: Philip Morris forced to withdraw its IQOS device from sale, published October 4, 2024, accessed October 11