Parallel tobacco markets: contested figures

According to a KPMG report commissioned by tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris, 49% of cigarettes consumed in France come from parallel markets. This estimate is strongly contested by consumer surveys conducted by government agencies and public health stakeholders, including the National Committee Against Smoking and ACT-Alliance Against Tobacco, who denounce this as an attempt to manipulate public opinion.

A report published on June 11, 2025, by KPMG, at the request of Philip Morris, states that nearly one in two cigarettes smoked in France in 2024 (49% of consumption) would come from the parallel market, i.e., outside the retail distribution monopoly of tobacconists. This figure would place France at the top of the European countries most affected by the illicit tobacco trade. These data, however, are not verified by official consumption surveys and are nevertheless subject to strong criticism from public bodies and anti-tobacco associations, which point to an opaque methodology and a recurring strategy of disinformation orchestrated by the tobacco industry.

An alarming estimate based on biased sources

According to the report, total cigarette consumption in France in 2024 would amount to 49.9 billion units. Of this total, only 19.4 billion cigarettes would be on the domestic legal market. The remainder—18.7 billion cigarettes—would correspond to non-domestic products, divided between counterfeits, contraband, "illicit whites," and legal cross-border purchases. KPMG estimates that counterfeits alone would represent 15.6 billion of French consumption, with 7.79 billion cigarettes, a figure that represents a significant increase (+1.5 billion) compared to 2023. "Illicit whites"—legally produced cigarettes sold in countries where they do not have marketing authorization—would account for approximately 6.8 billion of the total (or 2.59 billion cigarettes). Finally, the report lists 8.36 billion cigarettes in the "other forms of contraband" category, including products illegally brought into France from other European or non-EU markets.

According to the study, this situation is attributable to several factors: high taxation in France, proximity to countries with lower taxes, and the growing role of organized crime groups. The report also highlights the rise of online commerce and the increased location of clandestine production factories near consumer markets, particularly in France, where 95.6 million cigarettes were seized in 2024 during raids on illegal factories.

An opaque and hotly contested methodology

The report commissioned by the industry is based primarily on "empty pack surveys," which analyze packaging found in public spaces to deduce the origin of cigarettes. This method raises many reservations. It does not allow us to know where these packs were purchased or to establish consumers' purchasing behavior. A foreign pack found in the street does not necessarily indicate an illicit purchase: it could be a pack legally purchased abroad by a French tourist during a trip, a sample seized and then redistributed, or simply a wrapper discarded by a tourist staying in France. Added to this is a total lack of transparency regarding the protocol: no information is provided on the geographical distribution of the collections, the size of the sample, the periods considered, or the distinction between counterfeits, legal cross-border purchases, or stolen products. Furthermore, the report states in its introduction that it is "not intended for use by other parties," emphasizing that it is exclusively a private work for Philip Morris, without any independent control.

A strategy with clearly political aims according to the CNCT

The CNCT denounces the instrumental use of these figures for lobbying purposes. In its press release of June 11, 2025[1], the association points out that the tobacco industry continues to exaggerate data to hinder effective public policies. It cites a glaring discrepancy between KPMG's results and those from public sources: while the report points to 49,% of parallel market, OFDT surveys reveal that 80,% of smokers report having bought their last pack in a tobacconist's, and that truly illegal channels represent less than 1,% of consumption.

Above all, the figures put forward by KPMG are unrelated to independent studies conducted on the subject. Estimates produced by public bodies such as the OFDT, the INSEE, and the National Assembly estimate the share of purchases outside the legal network at between 10 and 20 percent of national consumption, a level significantly lower than that presented by the firm commissioned by the industry. The CNCT also emphasizes that two independent studies conducted under the aegis of the Interministerial Mission to Combat Drugs and Addictive Behaviors (Mildeca) are currently being finalized: one, entrusted to Christian Ben Lakhdar, aims to assess the volume of "tobacco escaping national taxation"; the other, led by Louis Braverman, focuses specifically on street contraband. This work will provide objective and methodologically rigorous insight into the issue.

The CNCT finally emphasizes the tobacco industry's well-known strategy: using biased data to put pressure on decision-makers, particularly during periods of tax policy revision. By presenting themselves as actors mobilized against smuggling, manufacturers seek to gain legitimacy in the public debate, while concealing their own responsibility in the historical fueling of parallel trade. This tactic, long denounced by international institutions, constitutes a practice of interference in public policy.

The tobacco industry's involvement in parallel markets

Beyond the rhetoric, numerous judicial investigations and institutional reports have highlighted the tobacco industry's direct or indirect involvement in the development of parallel circuits. Among the practices regularly highlighted is the deliberate oversupply by manufacturers of certain low-tax markets, thus encouraging the rerouting of their own products to higher-priced countries. This structural responsibility is now documented by bodies such as the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) and the WHO, and makes the tobacco companies' stance all the more problematic when they now claim to be fighting a phenomenon that they themselves helped to create and maintain, explain anti-smoking associations.

©Generation Without Tobacco

AE

[1] Press release, Parallel tobacco markets: the tobacco industry persists in spreading misinformation, CNCT, published on June 11, 2024, consulted the same day