New Zealand has not met its Smoke-Free 2025 target

The main findings on smoking prevalence from the New Zealand Health Survey 2024/2025 (NZHS) covered 9,253 people aged 15 and over.[1]. Put into perspective with the government's "Smokefree 2025" objective, which aims to reduce the proportion of daily smokers to less than 5% in the entire population by the end of 2025, these figures show a stall in the decline of smoking and vaping, numerous inequalities in relation to smoking and a weak will on the part of the government to achieve a tobacco-free generation.

The decline in smoking has stalled, while vaping is increasing among some young people.

In 2024-2025, the proportion of daily smokers in New Zealand was 6.8 per 100,000 adults, or approximately 294,000 people. Current smoking (at least one cigarette per month) affected 8.3 per 100,000 adults, or approximately 362,000 people.

After a continuous decline between 2011-2012 (16.4 %) and 2022-2023 (6.8 %), the daily smoking rate has remained stable for three consecutive years. This is the first time this survey has remained stable since it began.

The results thus suggest a slowdown in the decline of smoking, contrasting with the downward trend observed during the previous decade.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Asthma and Lung Foundation is raising the alarm about the sharp increase in daily vaping among 15-17 year olds, which rose from 10.3 to 13.6 in one year.[2], according to the latest survey.

In 2021, 17 final-year students and 13 penultimate-year students reported vaping in the seven days prior to the study. By 2024, these figures had risen to 20 final-year students and 26 penultimate-year students, even though the sale of e-cigarettes to minors is prohibited in New Zealand.

A A recent New Zealand study has demonstrated that the two phenomena are linked. : the rise in vaping among young people is contributing to slowing the decline in traditional smoking.

Persistent inequalities based on ethnic origin, social background, age and gender

Significant differences also persist between population groups. In 2024-2025, the prevalence of daily smoking remained high among Māori (15 %) and Pacific Islander (10.3 %) populations, well above the target threshold of 5 %. Conversely, rates of traditional smoking were lower among people of European or other descent (5.7 %) and Asian descent (4.5 %). These differences remain significant after adjusting for age and sex.

Significant disparities are also observed according to the socioeconomic level of residential neighborhoods. Residents of the most disadvantaged areas had a prevalence of 12.9%, compared to only 2.4% in the least disadvantaged areas. The gap remains very pronounced even after demographic adjustment.

The prevalence also varies according to age: it was relatively low in 18-24 year olds (4.4 %), but higher in other age groups, where it ranged between 7.4 % and 9.7 %. In people aged 75 and over, it reached 3.3 %.

Differences are also observed according to sex: 8.3 % of men reported smoking daily, compared to 5.3 % of women, a gap that persists after statistical adjustment.

Health experts say the "Smoke-free 2025" goal cannot be achieved.

The results therefore show that the continuous decline in smoking has stopped, with rates stabilizing for the past three years and significant disparities in progress. This stagnation makes it unlikely that the target of fewer than 5 daily smokers across all population groups by the end of 2025 will be achieved.

Chris Bullen, a professor of public health at the University of Auckland, explains that the Labour Party's "Smokefree 2025" action plan aimed to achieve a tobacco-free generation through three key measures: banning the sale of cigarettes to anyone born after 2009, reducing the number of tobacco retailers, and removing 95% of the nicotine from cigarettes.[3].

Although supported by the public and public health experts, these measures were repealed following the election of a Conservative coalition government. The new Deputy Minister of Health, Casey Costello, promoted e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products as alternatives to cigarettes, fueling the nicotine epidemic instead of combating it.

This change of course coincided with the fact that The minister has proven ties to the tobacco industry., causing New Zealand to fall from 2nd place^e at the 53rd^e ranking in the 2025 global index for protecting public policies from tobacco industry interference[4].

Anaru Waa, an associate professor at the University of Otago, called for the reinstatement of health measures removed by this government, and for them to be extended to more products, including electronic cigarettes.

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1]Janine Nip, Richard Edwards, Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Lani Teddy, Smoking prevalence and trends: Important findings from the 2024-25 New Zealand Health Survey, Public Health Communication Centre Aotearoa, published November 26, 2025, accessed December 1, 2025

[2]New Zealand Doctor Rata Aotearoa Online, Teen vaping crisis worsens, system 'truly failed to protect them', health organization says, Published on November 19, 2025, accessed on December 1, 2025

[3]Sharon Brettkelly, Why New Zealand failed to reach its Smokefree 2025 target, RNZ, published on November 28, 2025, accessed on December 1, 2025

[4]STOP, Government Efforts to Protect Policy from Tobacco Industry Interference Deteriorate in 46 Countries, Published on November 11, 2025, accessed on December 1, 2025

National Committee Against Smoking |