Decline in tobacco sales in France in 2021 and overall decline in consumption among adolescents

A note from the French Observatory of Drugs and Addictive Trends (OFDT) summarizes current trends in tobacco product consumption among adults and adolescents.

The OFDT is closely monitoring trends in tobacco sales, consumption, and cessation strategies, both among adults and adolescents. A report produced by this Observatory summarizes the latest trends.[1].

Decline in tobacco product sales in 2021

Sales of tobacco products within the national tobacconist network fell by 6.6 % in 2021 and represent 43,188 tonnes of tobacco. After stabilizing in 2020, due to the lockdown effect, sales have therefore resumed their downward trend, which began in 2012. Cigarettes still represent 78 % of this volume, the remainder being shared between rolling tobacco (17 %, compared to 12 % from 2008 to 2011) and other tobacco products (6 % compared to 3 to 4 % from 2006 to 2019). However, the price gaps between cigarettes and rolling tobacco have narrowed since 2019.

The largest declines were recorded in the Hauts-de-France and Grand Est regions, where cross-border purchases have resumed, following the increase observed during the first lockdown of 2020. These declines exceeded 10.% in fifteen departments, all bordering France, while they stood at 5.8% in the rest of metropolitan France.

Cross-border purchases still dominate purchases outside the official network

Among purchases made outside the national tobacconist network, cross-border purchases remain predominant and are largely legal, when made in authorized quantities.[2]. It is when they exceed these authorized quantities that cross-border purchases become illegal. Illegal purchases can also concern contraband products (massive cross-border purchases, often through mafia networks, but also "cheap white" products, produced by cigarette manufacturers in factories located in free zones), or even counterfeit products (illegal production).

In total, these off-network purchases, without being illicit, would represent 22 % of tobacco purchases, the actual share of illicit purchases being estimated at 12 % (including 10.4% for purchases from a relative or a reseller, and 1.6% in purchases on the Internet), which seems significantly lower than what the manufacturers announce. Based on a study carried out on empty packets (" empty pack surveys » or "packet-picking" studies, the methodology of which remains contested), SEITA, a subsidiary of the Imperial Brands group, claims that 37 % of cigarettes come from purchases outside the national network, of which nearly 18 % are counterfeit cigarettes[3] and 19 % of cross-border purchases; however, these studies present sampling biases and tend to overestimate the share of illegal purchases, while poorly distinguishing between cross-border packs purchased legally and illegally. Manufacturers frequently invoke the argument that tax increases on tobacco products would lead to an increase in smuggling; on the contrary, observation seems to show that the reduced accessibility of tobacco products leads to a drop in consumption which is reflected in both the legal and the illicit market[4].

Decline in adolescent drug use and experimentation

In terms of tobacco consumption, there are 15 million smokers per year, including 12 million daily users (25.5% of 18-75 year olds in 2020), for 37 million people who have experimented with tobacco during their lifetime.

Significant social disparities are observed: the prevalence of daily smoking, varying according to the level of education, is 36 % among people with no education compared to 17 % among those with a degree above the baccalaureate. Income level also plays a role, since 33 % of daily smokers are in the lowest tercile, compared to 18 % in the highest tercile. The unemployed (44 %) are more likely to be daily smokers than employed people (27 %) or students and the inactive (24 %).

Teenage smoking continues to decline, and experimentation with tobacco among 9th graders^e going from 37.5 % in 2018 to 29 % in 2021 (compared to 52 % in 2010), while daily consumption increases from 6.5 % in 2018 to 3.7 % in 2021 (compared to 15.6 % in 2010)[5]In this population, the average age of experimentation with tobacco has fallen, from 13.7 years in 2000 to 14.4 years in 2017. The transition from experimentation to daily consumption, on the other hand, has been reduced to 13 months in 2021, compared to 22 in 2011. Exclusive experimentation with shisha remains stable, around 6 % in 3rd grade^e, marking an establishment of this use among adolescents, while mixed consumption including shisha is down 6 points (from 20 % to 14 %) compared to 2018. Experiments with electronic cigarettes (34 %) have also exceeded those with tobacco among 3rd grade students^e, while their daily use has remained stable since 2018. At 17 years old, 25 % of adolescents were daily smokers of tobacco products in 2021, compared to 41 % in 2000.

Perception of tobacco remains linked to smoking status

The perception of the dangers of smoking among adults depends on smoking status: smokers tend more often to minimize the risks associated with experimentation (28% versus 36% among non-smokers).[6] and to consider that these dangers are mainly linked to the daily use of tobacco (56% compared to 49% of non-smokers). A study conducted in 2017 among adolescents indicates that among the latter, the perception of tobacco products has clearly deteriorated and that these are today strongly associated with physical decline, death and various pathologies linked to tobacco, including among young smokers[7].

TSNs are on the rise, No Tobacco Month is less followed

On the smoking cessation side, sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) increased by 14% in 2021. This increase is driven by the reimbursement of these treatments under the standard regime, following the disappearance of NRT packages on 1^er January 2019, and by the expansion of prescribers to 1^er January 2016. Oral forms of these NRTs are experiencing the strongest growth (+21 % compared to 2020), probably due to the increase in therapeutic combinations of patch + oral forms. This increase is less marked (+10 %) for transdermal patches (patches). The two batch recalls of varenicline (Champix®), in July and October 2021, halved sales of this treatment (0.9 % of treatments in 2021)[8].

While visits to the Tabac-Info-Service website fell by 9%, first-time calls to the Tabac Info Service line increased by 14.4 %, while second-time calls (interviews with a tobacco specialist) fell by 3 % and downloads of the application by 22 %. The 2021 No Tobacco Month brought together 10 % fewer participants (112,931 in 2021, compared to 126,690 in 2020), but the number of attempts to quit smoking during this period, or around 1.8 million people, is estimated at double the number of online registrations (784,874).

The trends observed in sales, consumption, and attempts to quit are therefore rather encouraging, and show that a voluntary and, above all, sustained policy can bear fruit. Slowing the decline in consumption, however, requires increased efforts to be able to achieve the goal of a tobacco-free generation by 2030, i.e., fewer than 5% smokers.

Keywords: sales, uses, perception, withdrawal, France, OFDT

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[1] Douchet MA, Smoking and smoking cessation in 2021, OFDT, Notes, April 2021, 20 p.

[2] The quantities of tobacco that can be brought back from abroad, since August 1, 2020: 200 cigarettes; 250 grams of smoking tobacco (rolling or other); 100 cigarillos; 50 cigars, these quantities being cumulative. Before this date, the authorized quantities were four times higher.

[3] Degrandmaison E, Counterfeit tobacco: the parallel market is exploding in the Pays de la Loire region, Ouest France, published March 30, 2022, consulted April 29, 2022.

[4] Global illicit tobacco trade down worldwide, Tobacco-Free Generation, published March 9, 2022, accessed May 4, 2022.

[5] Spilka S., Philippon A., Le Nézet O., Janssen E., Eroukmanoff V., Godeau E. Use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis among 3rd grade students in 2021. OFDT, Trends, No. 148, December 2021, 4 p.

[6] Spilka S., Le Nézet O., Janssen E., Brissot A., Philippon A., Chyderiotis S. (2019) Drugs: perceptions of products, public policies and users. OFDT, Trends, No. 131, April 2019, 8 p.

[7] Obradovic I. Representations, motivations and trajectories of drug use in adolescence. OFDT, Trends, No. 122, December 2017, 8 p.

[8] CHAMPIX (varenicline) – Batch recall due to the presence of the impurity N-nitrosovarenicline at a level above the acceptable limit, ANSM, published on 1^er October 2021, accessed May 4, 2022.