Decline in global tobacco consumption threatened by tobacco industry

A recent WHO report[1] reports on the encouraging progress made by countries and civil society worldwide in combating the tobacco epidemic within the framework of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the findings of this report demonstrate a continued downward trend in tobacco use across the globe, much remains to be done to curb the activities of the tobacco industry, which remains the main obstacle to tobacco control.

Progress in reducing tobacco use is a key indicator for measuring countries' efforts to implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. The 2025 target set under the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020 specified that countries should strive to achieve a 30% reduction in tobacco use prevalence using the 2010 level as the baseline year. This translates to a maximum total tobacco use prevalence rate of 18.7% for the total population aged 15 years and older, 29.6% for men, and 7.8% for women.

Smoking prevalence still very high among men

In 2000, approximately one-third (32.7 %) of the global population (both sexes) aged 15 years and older used tobacco. By 2020, this rate had fallen to less than one-quarter (22.3 %) of the global population. Assuming current tobacco control efforts are maintained in all countries, the rate is projected to decline further by 2025 to approximately one-fifth (20.4%) of the global population. There are significant gender disparities: in 2020, 36.7% of men used tobacco. This proportion was 49.3% in 2000 and is expected to reach 34.3% in 2025. The proportion among women is respectively 7.8% in 2020, 16.2% in 2000 and 6.6% estimated in 2025. The evolution of the prevalence among women would be in line with the objective set by governments.

Slow decline in smoking in the European Region

The fastest decline is in the Americas Region, where an average reduction of 33 % is expected between 2010 (21 %) and 2025 (14 %) for the period considered in relation to the reduction targets of the Global Plan. The African Region and the South-East Asia Region are both on track to achieve an average reduction of nearly 32 %.

The European Region is experiencing a relatively slow decline in consumption. The decline is 19.% between 2010 and 2025, meaning that the prevalence of consumption is expected to fall from 29.3% of the population in 2010 to 23.7% in 2025. With an estimated decline of 22% by 2025, the Eastern Mediterranean Region is also following a slower rate of decline than the global average of 24%. Prevalence in the region would thus fall from 22.1% users in 2010 to 17.3% in 2025. The slowest decline of all WHO regions occurs in the Western Pacific Region, where the average expected decline is only 8.% over the study period, from 26.1% in 2010 to 24.1% in 2025.

All WHO regions, except the European Region, are on track to reduce female smoking prevalence by at least 30% by 2025. The female smoking rate in the European Region is projected to remain high at 17% in 2025, due to an average relative reduction of only 13% since 2010.

The Tobacco Industry's Obstacle to Smoking Reduction

Based on current trends, only 60 countries are expected to achieve their target of reducing tobacco consumption by 30% by 2025, assuming they can continue implementing tobacco control measures at the current rate or faster. These 60 countries represent 41% of the world's population and are predominantly located in the African Region or the Americas.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus welcomes this decline but warns of the following: "We still have a long way to go, and the tobacco industry will do whatever it can to defend the enormous profits it makes from selling its deadly product."

The report states that new tobacco and nicotine products are not safe, and that there is growing evidence that the tobacco industry and its allies are actively trying to undermine tobacco control efforts by using these new products, presented as lower-risk products in order to take advantage of favorable regulations. According to the WHO Director-General, given the tobacco industry's systematic opposition to tobacco control, countries must actively implement policies based on independent evidence. They must act continuously and remain vigilant even after tobacco control policies are implemented and even if countries achieve good results.

Keywords: WHO, prevalence, consumption, tobacco, smoking, world

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