United States: First increase in cigarette sales in 20 years

Sales of conventional cigarettes increased by 0.41% in 2020 in the United States. This trend can be assumed to be temporary and linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it raises questions about the promotions offered by the tobacco industry.

According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the four major cigarette manufacturers sold 800 million more cigarettes in the United States in 2020 than the previous year, or 203.7 billion units.[1]Chewing tobacco sales also increased slightly, while e-cigarette sales, measured by other sources, declined for the first time. Several explanations have been put forward to explain this phenomenon.

Questions about the origin of the rebound in cigarette sales

It is not yet clear whether this increase in sales is due to new consumers, returning smokers, or increased sales volumes among existing smokers. The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly played a role in this trend, but different interpretations have emerged.

Erika Sward, vice president of the American Lung Association, believes the increase in sales is due to people who had stopped smoking due to the stress caused by the pandemic. Billy Gifford, CEO of Altria, the U.S. maker of the Marlboro brand, believes social isolation is responsible for the increase. “fewer social obligations having allowed more opportunities to smoke”. Financial support for consumption and the payment of federal aid to the unemployed have also, according to the tobacco companies, been able to maintain consumption levels. Bloomberg, for its part, noted in April 2020 that Altria cigarette sales experienced surges in the first quarter of 2020 due to higher sales volumes; the explanation then put forward was that of a stockpiling effect by consumers, due to fears of a shortage of tobacco products.

The track of the effect of promotions

The FTC report makes no assumptions about the influence of COVID-19, but notes that tobacco companies increased their advertising and promotional budgets by $215 million in 2020, reaching a total of $7.8 billion. This increase is believed to have primarily been used to finance “promotions with cigarette retailers, in order to reduce the price of cigarettes for consumers”[2]. The tactic of lowering prices to halt the decline in cigarette consumption was also observed in France in September 2021[3], adopting an old technique used by tobacco manufacturers to retain customers by creating attractive products. Tobacco promotions are banned in France, but remain legal in the United States and many other countries.

Don Burke, senior vice president of Management Science Associates, believes that "In 2020, total nicotine consumption in the United States increased by 3.41%.", establishing, according to him, a link between the pandemic and global nicotine consumption[4]. However, he remains skeptical that nicotine products can eventually replace tobacco products.

A rise in cigarette sales that could be temporary

This period of increased cigarette sales in the United States, however, appears to have been confined to 2020. The Nielsen Retail Sales Index indicated a 4.91% decline in conventional cigarette sales in March 2021. It therefore seems a little early to draw conclusions for 2021 from the figures observed in 2020.

The FTC data nevertheless echo the increases in cigarette consumption observed in England and France in the first half of 2021. As in the United States, the rise in smoking in England after twenty years of continuous decline had caused some emotion[5].

Keywords: cigarette, sales, promotions, United States. ©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] Gregg A, Why cigarette sales rose last year for first time in two decades, The Washington Post, published October 27, 2021, accessed November 2, 2021. [2] Neuman S, Cigarette sales went up last year for the first time in 20 years, NPR, published October 27, 2021, accessed November 2, 2021. [3] Tobacco Free Generation, Tobacco industry's ploy to lower prices, published September 7, 2021, accessed November 2, 2021. [4] By Haar M, Tobacco and Nicotine Trends to Watch, CSP Daily News, published August 5, 2021, accessed November 2, 2021 [5] Tobacco Free Generation, England: significant increase in the number of young smokers since 2019, published May 21, 2021, accessed November 2, 2021. National Committee Against Smoking |