In North Africa and the Middle East, smoking will continue to increase

Despite the global trend of declining smoking, tobacco consumption is expected to continue to rise in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the coming years. While this growth is partly driven by manufacturers' development of new tobacco products, it is largely driven by sales of traditional cigarettes.

According to Euromonitor, the North Africa and Middle East region is expected to see cigarette sales volume increase by 1.41t/3t between 2021 and 2026. This is the only region forecast to see growth, along with Asia Pacific, which is expected to see an increase of 0.71t/3t. For the remaining five regions, the forecasts predict a decrease in sales volume ranging from 2.11t/3t for Latin America to -10.51t/3t for Australasia (Australia, New Zealand, and New Guinea).[1]For Western Europe, a decrease of 2.6% is expected by 2026.

Forecasts contradict the end of cigarettes, promised by the tobacco industry

The rise in tobacco consumption in these regions is due in particular to an increase in female smoking, which represents strong growth potential for manufacturers. The MENA region is also characterized by a particularly high smoking prevalence among men. In Jordan, male smoking is reaching record levels, with more than 80% of adult male smokers, for an average consumption of 23 cigarettes per consumer per day.[2]This increase in tobacco consumption, and particularly cigarette consumption in this region of the world, undermines the tobacco industry's discourse developed in high-income countries. In these regions, where there has been a gradual decline in tobacco consumption, manufacturers are increasing their discourse focused on their social responsibility, even going so far as to claim to support a world without cigarettes. These statements ultimately seem limited to regions where the decline in smoking is being forced by advances in public health; elsewhere, the tobacco industry continues to develop strategies to encourage cigarette consumption.

Development of new products in North Africa and the Middle East

As Euromonitor points out, this growth is also explained by the development of new tobacco and nicotine products, whether e-cigarettes or heated tobacco. For example, IQOS, the heated tobacco brand for Philip Morris International, is now established in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, and Tunisia. Meanwhile, Glo, the British American Tobacco product, has only been rolled out in Egypt so far.

FT

[1] Euromonitor, Tobacco Consumption in the Middle East and North Africa set to Rise, Despite Global Decline, 09/06/2022, (accessed 13/06/2022)

[2] The Guardian, Jordan smoking rates highest in world amid claims of big tobacco interference, 06/23/2020, (accessed 05/03/2021)