Sub-Saharan Africa: Study demonstrates effectiveness of tax increases in combating tobacco

A recent study published in the journal Tobacco Control highlights the role of tax increases in reducing smoking in eight sub-Saharan African countries. This study adds to the international scientific literature, which suggests that large tax increases are the most effective tool for reducing tobacco consumption. For the researchers, these findings, specific to the African context, provide a body of evidence on which public decision-makers could base tobacco control policies.

The researchers drew on data from more than 50,000 people from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, which was conducted in eight African countries between 2012 and 2018 (Botswana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda).[1].

Significant results across all sub-Saharan African countries

The survey results show that price increases are significantly associated with a decrease in cigarette demand in the countries observed. Thus, in sub-Saharan Africa, the price elasticity is estimated at -0.362, in other words, a tax increase leading to a price increase of 10% results in a reduction of 3.62% in consumption. This elasticity, however, varies according to the different economic and social characteristics of individuals (level of education, level of wealth, gender, marital status, etc.). According to the authors of this study, this reduction in consumption is more reflected in a decrease in smoking prevalence than in a decrease in the volumes consumed per smoker. Thus, approximately 86% of the reduction in consumption is explained by the decline in the smoking rate, while the remaining 14% is attributed to a reduction in smoking intensity. As the researchers point out, an increase in tobacco taxes is thus beneficial to public health, since completely stopping smoking is significantly more beneficial for the smoker than reducing consumption. Indeed, the risk of smoking is more a function of the number of years of smoking than of the quantity consumed.

Towards a probable tobacco epidemic in Africa in the coming years

Such a study thus provides policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa with a scientific basis specific to their region to motivate the implementation of tax increases on tobacco products. Africa is currently the continent with the lowest levels of tobacco taxes. Moreover, while smoking is declining globally, the authors of the study emphasize that Africa could likely face a tobacco epidemic in the coming years. Such a risk is explained by the continent's economic and demographic growth, but also by the marketing efforts of the tobacco industry, which is turning massively to these new markets to compensate for its global decline, particularly in Western countries, where proven anti-smoking measures have been implemented. Beyond being effective in reducing smoking, and meeting the recommendations of Article 6 of the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), tax increases are also necessary given the economic and fiscal costs of smoking.

FT