Africa: Tax increases are the best defense against youth smoking

A study comparing the smoking habits of young people in 16 African countries suggests that increasing taxes on cigarette prices is one of the best ways to reduce their consumption.

The strong demographic growth of African countries translates into a very young population, making it a prime breeding ground for tobacco sales. With African countries maintaining the lowest excise rates in the world, the continent is expected to eventually become the future epicenter of the tobacco epidemic.

Patchy data on smoking among young Africans

The scientific literature is abundant and reveals that young people in low- and middle-income countries are more sensitive to increases in tobacco prices than those in high-income countries, but few studies document the issue for young Africans. Similarly, while several studies have been able to demonstrate that adults are less sensitive than young people to price elasticity[1], data were until now lacking to measure this influence among young Africans.

The study conducted by two South African researchers[2] is based on data provided by the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, an international survey implemented in 1999 and whose questionnaire was revised in 2012. In addition to certain demographic information, such as the type of housing (urban/rural), the smoking prevalence of parents or the availability of pocket money, this survey also collects information on exposure to advertising or anti-smoking messages, as well as on the ease for minors to be able to purchase tobacco. From a base of 67,500 people, aged 10 to 19, participating in this survey on tobacco consumption habits, the authors compared these data with other criteria, such as the price of cigarettes (national or international brands), the smoking prevalence of the country or the number of people living below the poverty line (set at 1.90 $ US/day) in the countries concerned.

Tobacco price, first environmental criterion

The results of this study show that the smoking prevalence and consumption intensity of young Africans are even more sensitive than those of their elders to the price of tobacco than to other environmental criteria such as the accessibility of tobacco for young people or exposure to advertising. This price sensitivity is more true for international brands than for national brands, which are usually less expensive; exposure to advertising messages seems to have an incentive effect on the consumption of national cigarette brands, but little on that of international brands. Exposure to anti-smoking messages, on the other hand, would have the effect of reducing the intensity of smoking, without influencing the prevalence itself. Moreover, the intensity of this tobacco consumption increases as individuals advance in age and education, but also when they receive pocket money and especially when one of the two parents is a regular smoker.

Confirming the effectiveness of tobacco price increases through tax hikes among young people, the authors urge African governments to significantly increase their tobacco taxes in order to limit the entry of young people into smoking. Already, in the fall of 2020, South African associations had urged public authorities to double their excise taxes in order to curb the tobacco epidemic.[3].

Keywords: tobacco prices, Africa, South Africa, youth ©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] Gap between the increase in tobacco prices and the level of tobacco consumption in response to these increases. [2] Filby S, van Walbeek C, Cigarette prices and smoking among youth in 16 African countries: Evidence from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, ntac017, published January 17, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntac017 [3] Tobacco Free Generation, South Africa: NGOs call for 100% tax hike. Published October 26, 2020, accessed January 25, 2022. National Committee Against Smoking |