England: decline in consumption has slowed sharply since 2019

A recent study shows that the average number of cigarettes smoked per day in England fell between 2008 and 2023. However, the data shows that the proportion of smokers reporting that they mainly use rolling tobacco has increased significantly, while the number of cigarettes smoked per day is rising again among some groups of smokers.

The authors of this research used data from nearly 60,000 smokers aged at least 18, between 2008 and 2023. The researchers were particularly interested in the respondents' smoking frequency, the type of tobacco they consumed, their age, their gender, and their social situation.[1].

Fewer cigarettes smoked per day, but more people use rolling tobacco in England

Between 2008 and 2023, the average number of cigarettes consumed daily fell from 13.5 to 11. However, the study notes that this decline is not linear, and that the volumes consumed daily have tended to stagnate since 2019. Behind this decline lies an increasingly unequal distribution, with a growing proportion of smokers reporting low levels of consumption (less than five cigarettes per day). At the same time, the proportion of people reporting consuming 10, 15, and 20 cigarettes per day has tended to decrease over the years. The study authors also highlight a change in the type of tobacco consumed. Indeed, in 2008, 30.8% of respondents estimated that they mainly consumed rolling tobacco, compared to more than 52% in 2023. However, this increase in the proportion of rolling tobacco smokers occurred largely between 2008 and 2015.

Consumption that has stagnated since 2019, or is even increasing again in certain groups

The researchers show that the number of cigarettes smoked daily tends to be higher among men than women, among disadvantaged populations than among those in privileged social categories, among the elderly than among young people, and among consumers of manufactured cigarettes than among consumers of rolling tobacco. Across all the groups studied, a significant decline in consumption was observed between 2008 and 2023.

However, the magnitude of this decline was significant among young people, as the number of daily cigarettes smoked by 18-year-olds fell by almost 38%, while it decreased by 13.5% among 65-year-olds. From 2019 onwards, the decline in daily cigarette consumption stabilized more markedly among men, those aged 55 and over, and non-vapers. For both the most advantaged and daily users, the number of cigarettes smoked per day has even started to rise again in recent years in England.

Changes in behavior attributable to the pandemic

For the authors of the study, the increase in the proportion of smokers using rolling tobacco can be explained by the price differences between these two types of product. The increase in the cost of living in England, observed since 2021, is also one of the elements that can explain why consumers are turning to rolling tobacco. In light of these data, the study concludes that it is necessary to increase the price of rolling tobacco in order to avoid consumption transfer mechanisms, which partially weaken the effectiveness of tax policies to combat smoking.

The COVID-19 period is also cited by the authors of the study to explain the stagnation of cigarette consumption in England since 2019. Thus, beyond the stressful and bored situations generated by the pandemic and lockdowns, COVID-19 has been accompanied by a strong development of teleworking, effectively allowing more smokers to consume during their working days.

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[1] Sarah E Jackson, Harry Tattan-Birch, Vera Buss, Lion Shahab, Jamie Brown, Trends in Daily Cigarette Consumption Among Smokers: A Population Study in England, 2008–2023, Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2024;, ntae071, https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntae071