What tobacco market in 2050?

According to a report According to a financial analyst, consumption of traditional cigarettes in a number of countries could become marginal over the next three decades (2050), as smokers quit traditional cigarettes or switch to new tobacco and nicotine products.

Traditional smoking could disappear by 2050 in the United States, parts of Europe, Australia and large parts of Latin America if the downward trend seen in recent decades continues, according to financial analyst Citigroup Inc.

Tobacco consumption already in decline in many countries

Some countries cited in the report are already experiencing significant declines in their tobacco prevalence and are on track to achieve a tobacco-free generation in the coming years. In the United States, current smoking has declined from 42% of the adult population in 1965 to 21% in 2005 and 14% in 2019, its lowest point in history.[1]. In Australia, the latest data from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) indicate that 11.6% of adults smoked daily in 2019. This daily smoking rate continues to decline: it was 12.8% in 2016. Compared to 1991 (25% prevalence), it has decreased by more than half. [2]In Latin America, smoking prevalence has been reduced in recent decades thanks to regional tobacco control efforts.[3]. The Pan American Health Organization estimates that between 2007 and 2015, the prevalence of tobacco use fell from 22.11% to 17.41%, a greater decline than the global average. This trend is expected to continue, with the region being the "only WHO region expected to meet the target of reducing the prevalence of current tobacco use by 301% by 2025."[4].

The WHO European region has the highest level of tobacco prevalence in the world (29%) with large disparities between countries.[5]Smoking prevalence remains high, above 30% in Central and Eastern European countries (Serbia, Greece, Russia and Montenegro between 39 and 46% of the population aged 15 years and over), while levels below 20% have been reported in Nordic countries and Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway between 13 and 19% of the population aged 15 years and over).

In France, it is difficult to determine what the situation of the tobacco market could be in 2050. The prevalence of smoking remains high but has decreased significantly in recent years thanks to a strong political will and the adoption of strong coordinated measures. The objective of a tobacco-free generation by 2030 announced by the President of the Republic during the launch of the new strategy to combat cancer is part of this perspective. The first results of a decrease in the rate of daily smokers from 28.4% to 24% support this policy, however the prevalence remains high, including among young people.

The end of traditional smoking does not mean the end of nicotine

In response to this significant decline in consumption of traditional cigarettes, tobacco companies have diversified their product portfolio offerings in order to expand a shrinking customer base. Philip Morris International is betting heavily on its new heated tobacco product. According to Bloomberg, nearly 25% of the company's revenue comes from the latter. British American Tobacco (BAT), which has the most diversified portfolio of new products, is also investing heavily in its transformation into the nicotine industry.[6]. Tobacco manufacturers claim to have given "smokers a wider range of choices" and say the new products are "safer alternatives" intended to be "reduced-risk products." The tobacco industry said the products would "save" millions of people around the world from the harms of smoking.

The reality is that there is a massive increase in the consumption of these by the younger generations, who are particularly targeted by marketing campaigns.[7]-[8]. It therefore seems that the tobacco industry is essentially seeking to secure its economic future and create new opportunities for access to policy makers and, consequently, the possibility of influencing regulation, particularly for all these new tobacco products.

Keywords: Tobacco Free Generation, New Products, Marketing, Smoking, 2050

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults in the United States, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [2] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Tobacco smoking, July 23, 2020, accessed March 19, 2021 [3] Tobacco Free Generation, All of South America now covered by public smoking ban, January 14, 2021, accessed March 19, 2021 [4] Tobacco Tactics, Latin America and Caribbean Region, Last updated February 16, 2021, accessed March 19, 2021 [5] Loyola, Enrique & Lebedeva, Elizaveta & Graen, Laura & Mauer-Stender, Kristina & Fedkina, Natalia & Rakovac, Ivo. (2019). European tobacco use: Trends report 2019. [6] Tobacco Free Generation, BAT invests £1bn to promote new products to young people, February 23, 2021, accessed March 19, 2021 [7] Tobacco Free Generation, United States: Concern over consumption of nicotine pouches, February 12, 2021, accessed March 19, 2021 [8] Tobacco Free Generation, Music videos: an advertising showcase for nicotine, February 3, 2021, accessed March 19, 2021 National Committee Against Smoking |