Increase in tobacco consumption after lockdown: what should we think?

Alarming data for June 2020

While we have been pleased to see steady declines in tobacco sales in recent months, the June 2020 data is alarming. Indeed, sales in mainland France have seen a sharp increase compared to the June 2019 data, and this has been observed for all types of tobacco products:

+ 13.34% for cigarettes;

+ 28.63% for rolling tobacco;

+ 71.01% for “other smoking tobacco” corresponding in particular to shisha tobacco and heated tobacco;

+ 14.36% for snuff;

+ 69.48% for chewing tobacco.

Far from seeing a decline in smoking among its population, in view of these data, France is today witnessing the development of new consumption patterns, which are in reality not without health risks.

Beware of jumping to conclusions!

The worrying increase in tobacco sales during the June 2020 period may be linked to the unique circumstances of the lockdown, and especially the lifting of the lockdown. While stockpiling and reserves were the watchwords of the national lockdown for most French people, restocking could be the watchword of the lifting of the lockdown. The increase in sales observed last month could therefore be linked to a temporary change in consumer habits.

Furthermore, Logista specifies that the number of delivery days differed between 2019 and 2020. In June 2020, 2 additional delivery days (21) compared to 2019 (19) would therefore also help to explain these variations.

An interesting confirmation, however: The sharp reduction in cross-border purchases observed during the lockdown, which resulted in an upturn in sales at tobacconists, had no impact on national sales, which remained in decline. It would appear that, conversely, the resumption of cross-border purchases and the reduction in sales at border tobacconists had no impact on sales at the national level.

The effects of the taxation policy remain very positive since the comparison for 12 months (7/2019 to 6/2020 compared to 7/2018 to 6/2019) shows a regression of -6% in sales.

The figures for July should confirm that this alert was simply the result of a combination of circumstances.

Where is the danger to public health?

More alarming, however, is the continued sharp increase in the category of "other tobacco products," which includes pipe tobacco, shisha tobacco, and heated tobacco cartridges. Indeed, pipes are hardly used anymore, and shisha tobacco is almost completely outside legal distribution; this leaves only heated tobacco, which the scientific community considers much more harmful than helpful in helping people quit smoking.

A large percentage increase on a very small portion of tobacco products consumed certainly does not represent a profound change in habits. Vigilance on the part of public authorities and legislators remains necessary, both in economic and health terms. The tobacco industry has never abandoned the idea of keeping its customers trapped in a state of addiction to its deadly products, even though it has often created illusions by offering to participate in its own destruction.