Evolution of tobacco consumption in the world (2000-2030)

According to a report by the World Health Organization (WHO) published on January 16, 2024, tobacco consumption has been steadily declining worldwide since the early 2000s. While this reduction observed internationally is expected to continue by 2030, the WHO is calling on governments to accelerate the implementation of tobacco control policies, including strengthening the fight against the influence of the tobacco industry, which, despite its declarations of commitment to a "smoke-free world", vigorously opposes public health policies.

The WHO report examines the evolution of smoking prevalence over at least thirty years, in more than 180 countries, and covering more than 97% of the world population. While the results show a general decrease in smoking prevalence, there are significant disparities, particularly according to gender or region.[1].

A drop in smoking prevalence of more than ten points in twenty years

In 2000, nearly a third of the world's population aged 15 were daily or occasional smokers (32.7%). In twenty years, this proportion has fallen by more than ten points to reach 21.7% in 2020. WHO projections consider that global smoking prevalence should reach 18.1% by 2030. However, these figures are very different between men and women. Indeed, global smoking among men, despite a sharp decline, remains at particularly high levels. Thus, in 2000, 49.1% of the male population were smokers, compared to 35.5% in 2020. WHO estimates that it should reach 30.6% by 2030.

Among women, in addition to being at significantly lower levels, smoking prevalence is decreasing at a faster rate. Thus, 16.3% of the female population were smokers in 2000 compared to only 7.9% in 2020, and 5.7% by 2030, according to WHO forecasts.

Tobacco consumption among young people steadily decreasing according to WHO

Since smoking is considered an industrial epidemic, but also a pediatric epidemic, the consumption of the younger generations is also a good indicator for assessing consumption dynamics. On this point, the World Health Organization also shows a marked decline in smoking among 15-24 year-olds, who had 20.5% smokers in 2000, compared to 13.3 in 2022. In 2030, the smoking prevalence of the youngest is expected to fall further to 11.8%. In 2022, 15-24 year-olds were also the age group with the lowest smoking prevalence, with the exception of people aged 85 or over, who were slightly lower (12.9%).

However, this data should be considered with caution: in fact, the tobacco consumption model (pattern) has changed little since the 2000s, with smoking prevalence increasing with age, reaching a maximum around 55-64 for men and 55-64 for women, before gradually decreasing.

Here again, smoking prevalence is very unequal between female and male populations. Between 2000 and 2020, only 4.3% of women aged 15 to 24 were smokers, compared to 3.5% in 2020. Among young men, this proportion fell from 21.8% to 19.6%.

Strong regional disparities in tobacco consumption

Consumption dynamics are also very different across the six WHO regions. In 2000, South-East Asia was by far the region with the highest smoking prevalence, with 51.21 T3T smokers, followed by the Europe region (34.41 T3T), the Western Pacific region (281 T3T), the Eastern Mediterranean region (26.91 T3T), and then the Americas (26.81 T3T) and Africa (17.91 T3T). Twenty-two years later, the regional ranking is the same, albeit with very uneven levels of reduction. Thus, Southeast Asia recorded a decrease of almost 25 points, with a smoking prevalence of 26.5%, while Europe recorded a decline of around 9 points, with an estimated prevalence of 25.3% in 2022. At this date, Africa is the only European region with a smoking prevalence below the 10% mark (9.5%).

Number of smokers down in most WHO regions

Overall, the number of smokers worldwide decreased by almost 9% between 2000 and 2022, from 1.362 to 1.245 billion users. By 2030, WHO estimates that this number is expected to continue to decline, reaching 1.197 billion smokers, equivalent to a decrease of 3.8% compared to the 2022 figures. Of the six WHO regions, two have seen their number of smokers increase to date. First, the African region, which had 59 million smokers in 2000, compared to 60 in 2022. This increase is expected to continue by 2030, with 64 million smokers expected on the continent. The Eastern Mediterranean region also increased from 74 to 92 million smokers between 2000 and 2022, compared to 103 million by 2030.

The increase in the number of smokers in two regions can be explained by two main reasons. On the one hand, the strong population growth in these regions explains why the number of smokers is increasing despite the constant decline in smoking prevalence. On the other hand, these two regions are now specifically targeted by the tobacco industry, faced with a market contraction in other regions, due to the implementation of effective tobacco control policies. In fact, the number of smokers in the Europe region has fallen considerably between 2000 and 2022, from 229 to 179 million.

Similarly, the decline among women is much more pronounced than among men. In fact, the number of female smokers worldwide was estimated at 224 million in 2022, compared to 338 million in 2000, corresponding to a decrease of almost 34%. In 2030, the WHO estimates that this number should fall below 200 million (193). Among men, this decrease is extremely limited (0.002%), with 1.024 billion smokers in 2000 compared to 1.022 in 2022. In 2030, this figure will still be over a billion smokers (1.004).

A call for stronger regulation

As WHO points out, the main determinant of changes in consumption remains the resources allocated by public authorities to combating smoking. On this point in particular, WHO calls on public authorities to increase regulation and its effectiveness, particularly in combating the influence of the tobacco industry in the development of public policies. Furthermore, the World Health Organization recalls the effectiveness of tobacco control policies in reducing prevalence, and the importance of the WHO treaty (FCTC) in providing a framework for combating smoking.

©Generation Without Tobacco

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[1] World Health Organization (WHO), WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco use 2000–2030, 16/01/2024